Larry Krasner, Kensington, the demolished Sixers arena — and other key concerns that will shape Philadelphia politics in 2025

Campus protests. Homeless clearings of the camp. Significant reductions in shootings, homicides And overdose death. Protests against “Save Chinatown.” A mass shooting at a SEPTA bus stop. Illegal car encounters. Municipal workers called back to the office. A SEPTA strike averted.

These are just a few of the titles that dominated Philadelphia politics in 2024.

So, what does 2025 have in store for the city?

I am a professor of politics at Drexel University and in 2023 I published a small book, “Reform Philadelphia, 1682-2022”, which traced the political development of the city with an eye on the future of its politics and politics.

Here are six key scenarios that will shape Philadelphia’s political landscape in 2025.

1. Partisan changes

Philadelphia enters 2025 with significantly greater political diversity than five years ago.

Partisanship in Philadelphia is captured not so much by a split between Democrats and Republicans as by what local journalist Larry Platt once called: “reformer vs progressive”, referring to the division between more conservative Democrats on the one hand and more liberal Democrats and progressive third parties on the other.

Progressive candidates have seen minor surges in recent years. Seven of the Philadelphia City Council’s 17 members are elected at-large, but no party is allowed to nominate more than five members to run for those seats in the general election. This means that for as long as anyone can remember, the council has had five Democratic members and two Republicans.

Then, in 2019, candidate for the Working Families Party Kendra Brooks won one of two at-large seats previously held by Republicans. A year later, two democratic socialists who presented themselves as democrats, Nikil Saval And Rick Krajewskiwere elected to the state Senate and House, respectively. And in 2023, another member of the Working Families Party, Nicolas O’Rourkewon the city council’s second at-large seat reserved for minor parties, completely replacing Republicans in those positions.

At the same time, the mayor-elect in 2023, Cherelle Parker, is a reasonably conservative Democrat – at least in the sense that she has not focused on social justice issues but rather on classic municipal issues. cleanliness And public safety.

And the 2024 elections saw GOP vote increases in Philadelphiaas was the case almost everywhere in the country. The Republicans captured a state senate seat in the city for the first time in two decades.

The most recent push for Republicans would ostensibly threaten the two Working Families Party members of the City Council, who are most vulnerable to electoral challenges that would bring back the Republicans as a whole. However, they are safe until 2027, when another Democratic surge in Philadelphia is likely, as many voters by then will likely have been unhappy with the Trump administration.

2. Will Krasner stay or go?

In 2025, the highest-profile municipal election will be for district attorney, and that seems potentially ripe for change.

The outgoing president is Larry Krasner, first elected in 2017 as part of the post-Trump progressive wave. He won decisively again in 2021, facing a challenger in the Democratic primary whose main support was of the Fraternal Order of Police.

Yet, as Parker’s election as mayor—and Trump’s election as president—suggests, Krasner could face an electorate ready to embrace a safer message in May 2025. The DA’s office in Philadelphia has always been a stronghold for conservative Democrats and even Republicans. Krasner could face bigger challengers this time, especially in primary.

3. Kensington at the Crossroads

Parker benefited from sharp decline of crime and violence after their peak caused by the pandemic. But she also has increased the police budget provide for hire 400 new agents; hired a police commissioner from the interior, Kevin Bethelwho has already received praise for his work on diversion and juvenile justice; and focused on quality of life issues such as crack down on ATV gangs.

Parker also focused particularly in the Kensington neighborhood and its famous open-air drug markets. This is important, not least because Kensington has largely contributed to the city’s dismal status as a leader in drug overdose deaths.

Drug trafficking was also keep development and property values ​​low – and therefore property tax revenues – in a district of path of gentrification. From my perspective, the Kensington cleanup promises to be one of the best returns on investment in the city.

4. Parker versus the Trump administration

Of course, another new thing the city will have to face in 2025 is the new Trump administration.

The previous Trump administration fought with then-Mayor Jim Kenney in 2016 over the city’s sanctuary policy regarding federal immigration enforcement. Basically, the Kenney administration won and I got back the federal grant that had been withheld.

Parker could find herself in a difficult situation if she plans to maintain some sort of sanctuary status for the city. The Trump administration – no friends from Philly at best – will likely face less resistance and some acquiescence, as we see in Chicagowhere some aldermen proposed removing this city’s sanctuary status.

The new president has also repeatedly signaled his desire to using the army for mass deportationsthereby circumventing the necessary cooperation of local law enforcement. This is a critical issue because immigration is a key economic asset for Philadelphia. Like the The Pew Charitable Trusts discoveredPhiladelphia immigrants tend to be younger, more likely to participate in the workforce, and more likely to start a business than native Philadelphians.

5. The Eastern market in limbo

And then there was the downtown 76ers arena project, approved by the municipal council in a 12-5 vote in December 2024, then completely scrapped early January 2025. Was this whole project simply some sort of bargaining chip used by Sixers ownership and management to get a better deal in South Philly from Spectacor Comcastthe owner of the teams’ current home at the Wells Fargo Center?

Either way, the whole project undoubtedly leaves a bad taste in the mouths of Chinatown businesses and other interest groups who opposed the new stadium and felt betrayed by the mayor and city council. But with the next municipal and municipal elections not taking place until 2027, it seems likely that all this will be forgotten by the time any elected official can be punished at the polls.

The failed downtown stadium deal paves the way for the future of the Market Street East corridor. The proposed arena was part of a reimagining of the Fashion Districta Pennsylvania Real Estate Investment Trust redevelopment project that opened in 2019. The pandemic and rising interest rates led to store closures and financial problems, and PREIT has since filed for bankruptcy twice. Add to that the fact that Macy’s, an anchor tenant in the corridor, announced it was closing its store in the historic Wanamaker building next to city hall.

The East Market – essentially the gateway to the city – is not shaping up very well for the 2026 celebrations planned as part of the 250th anniversary of the founding of the country. Indeed, the Constitution was drafted at Independence Hall, which is part of the Market East corridor. The chances of things improving in 2025 seem rather low, even if there are plans to convert the space into apartments and small shops.

Other major infrastructure projects will likely work in the mayor’s favor, including a new park covering part of I-95 which will reconnect the Delaware Riverfront to the Society Hill and Old Town neighborhoods. This is expected to be completed during Parker’s first term.

6. Inflation and housing

And finally, one of the most important issues in the last presidential election was the housing affordability crisis. This crisis is slightly eased in Philadelphia compared to some other major citiesbut it is nevertheless real.

Yet to some extent the city was inadvertently lucky. As 2021 was the last year developers could take full advantage of the city’s 10-year tax abatement for new construction, a record number of building permits were granted that year.

In 2022, the number of building permits fell to 2013 levels. Nevertheless, the 2021 permits led to a construction boomparticularly in residential construction, which could keep housing prices lower than household prices. they would be otherwise. This trend can be expected to continue until 2025, even if the volume of new permits declines further.