Ever since humans suffered from storms, they have dreamed of controlling the weather. The United States, like all great empires lost to hubris, has long sought to manipulate the skies for its own purposes. A new federal report found America sucks.
The report comes from the Government Accountability Office (GAO), a nonpartisan watchdog group that investigates the U.S. government. It focuses closely on “cloud seeding,” the practice of adding silver iodide crystals to clouds to make them burst and drop that gentle rain. As droughts regularly hit Western states, many local governments are trying to seed clouds to bring rain.
This doesn’t work well. The GAO acknowledged that cloud seeding has some validity, but measuring its effectiveness is almost impossible. “Cloud seeding can increase water availability and lead to economic, environmental and human health benefits. In studies reviewed by GAO, estimates of additional precipitation ranged from 0 to 20 percent,” the report said. “However, it is difficult to assess the effects of cloud seeding due to limitations in research on effectiveness.”
The idea of seeding clouds with something to make them rain began in the late 19th century, but was not studied and perfected until after World War II. “Scientists demonstrated the basis of cloud seeding in the 1940s when they observed in the laboratory that water in clouds could be artificially induced to create ice crystals using dry ice or silver iodide crystals,” the GAO said in its report. “Significant federal funding for research and development, including field experimentation, followed this discovery. For example, in fiscal year 1978, total federal funding for weather modification was approximately $68 million, in 2024 dollars.”
Scientists have never been able to prove that it works. Or, if it did, how effective was the seeding. In the 1980s, the federal government cut funding for cloud bootstrapping. Nowadays, most cloud seeding projects are local matters. According to the GAO, nine states (California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, Texas, Utah and Wyoming) seed clouds.
The methods and specifics of seeding differ significantly from country to country and even from state to state. This can be done from a plane flying above or through a cloud system, or from a large cannon on the ground that pumps particles into the air. This is often done with silver iodide, but sodium chloride, dry ice, liquid propane, and other salts are also used.
The GAO report is a list of the technology’s limitations. Utah alone spends $12 million a year on cloud seeding, with little effect. It’s difficult to estimate how much rain would have fallen without cloud seeding, so there isn’t a great way to build a control group for a study. It is also difficult to know how planting affected rainfall in a specific area. Many previous seed-based precipitation studies have shown results that were not statistically significant.
“While one study found an average increase in precipitation of 3 percent across 118 randomized cases, this effect was not statistically distinguishable from zero,” the GAO said. “One study reported an average increase in precipitation of 3% between 1977 and 2018 in nine cases, but statistical results could not conclusively determine an effect of cloud seeding in seven of the cases. »
The GAO also noted that no one knows what pumping silver iodine crystals and other particles into clouds to generate rain does to flora and fauna on the ground. More water in dry areas is generally better. But changing water levels in delicate and complex ecosystems can have unintended consequences. “One stakeholder said it is unclear whether cloud seeding could improve fish outcomes through higher water levels and lower water temperatures, and it does not It’s unclear how increased soil moisture from cloud seeding might translate into healthier, less dry forests that are less susceptible to wildfires. »
Silver iodine appears nontoxic in small doses, but the science is far from settled. “Silver iodide is almost insoluble in water,” the report states. “However, when it dissolves, it releases a small number of silver ions. In high enough quantities, silver ions – a known antimicrobial substance – could have harmful effects on beneficial bacteria in the environment and water resources.
The GAO also highlighted another problem with cloud seeding programs: conspiracy theories. Government control of the weather has long been a topic of conspiracy theories. This is a popular topic for Alex Jones and rose to prominence this year after Georgia GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene released it after Hurricane Helene.
This has led some lawmakers to view cloud seeding as a threat. Tennessee lawmakers passed a bill in April banning all forms of cloud seeding in the state. In media interviews, Tennessee lawmakers said they have taken steps to prevent chemtrails in the heavens. A ban on cloud seeding will do nothing to prevent chemtrails, which are just plumes of condensation and airplane exhaust that leave in their wake.