Between the disappearance of Joe Biden’s presidencyTHE assassination attempts against Donald Trump And November’s superb results in the presidential election2024 has been a crazy year for political news. I’m not sure 2025 will be much calmer. In fact, our political system may suffer one shock after another as Trump and his administration attempt to overhaul the U.S. government and conflict continues to shake the world.
What will Washington’s reaction be? What will be the effect on our lives?
I don’t really like making predictions – that’s what fortune tellers are for. But since journalism is about asking the right questions, I’m sharing the five that are top of mind for me as we approach the new year.
1. Are Republicans interested in governing?
They have 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. They have the Capitol. They have the Supreme Court. And now ? Getting what you want is always dangerous in politics – it’s always easier to blame the other side for your own failings, but if the other side is in the minority, as the Democrats are in Washington, it becomes more difficult to do.
Our political system could face one shock after another as Trump attempts to overhaul the U.S. government and conflict continues to shake the world.
Now it all depends on Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D. ; House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La.; and their reluctant ally in the White House, President-elect Donald Trump. If prices continue to rise, voters will force the Republican Party to take ownership of inflation. If undocumented migrants continue to cross the border into Mexico, the Republican Party will also be responsible for this explosive issue. The recent fight for public spendingas Trump prepares to push forward a deal that congressional Republicans had worked out, is probably an unwelcome preview of things to come.
Then there is The emergence of Elon Musk as a political powerhouse. He was the one who first opposed the spending deal, with Trump following suit. Then he immediately got into a fight over immigration, leading to a mini MAGA civil war between die-hard isolationists and those, like Musk, who want to continue recruiting skilled immigrants to the United States. It was all very complicated and very public.
Of course, both parties could work together, agreeing to share responsibilities without constantly seeking to shift blame. But this is Washington we’re talking about.
Expect inaction followed by finger-pointing at “awakened” dark forces, with frequent bursts of incompetence. And lots and lots of posts about Elon
2. Which of his promises will Trump keep?
Implicit in Trump’s pitch to voters was a return to the way things were before the coronavirus pandemic: a strong economy domestically, no new entanglements abroad. But the “times before” were not as rosy as some of the president-elect’s supporters would have you believe. And time travel is never a good political strategy.
Does the the migrant crisis worsens under Biden? Yes, but this is now Trump’s problem, which he promised to solve. He will also end the wars in the Middle East and Eastern Europe – or so he says. Watch out for inflation. Watch out, China. You have been put on noticegovernment bureaucrats.
Trump was more disciplined during this transition than it was eight years ago, when the lobby of Trump Tower became a marble-covered circus. That’s a good sign, but for Trump to actually deliver on his promises will require a level of focused multitasking and delegation of responsibilities that his first administration never really displayed.
3. Who will become the leader of the Democrats?
Everyone recognizes that after the defeats of November, a new approach is necessary: towards policies, towards messages and towards Trump himself. But no one has so far taken the lead in showing the rest of the party how to manage these imperatives convincingly.
Sorry folks, but it won’t be Vice President Kamala Harris, despite what his aides whisper to reporters. She will still have her supporters, but there just aren’t enough of them to convince other Democrats that she should be the party’s unofficial leader as it prepares to take on Trump for a second time.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York has shown the ability to keep his conference on track, but doesn’t yet have a national profile — and might, in fact, prefer a more low-key approach to that of his predecessor and mentor, Nancy. Pelosi.
Sorry, folks, but it won’t be Vice President Kamala Harris, despite what her aides whisper to reporters.
That leaves governors like Wes Moore of Maryland, Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, JB Pritzker of Illinois and Maura Healey of Massachusetts as potential contenders. They have a difficult road ahead. The appetite for real anti-Trump resistance is low, but no one wants to be seen as a collaborator, especially when it comes to issues like migrant deportations.
I happen to be extremely pessimistic about Pete Buttigieg, the outgoing Transportation Secretary, and Governor Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan. I said I wouldn’t make predictions, but here’s one: Mayor Pete and Big Gretch are going to suffer DeSantis-style devaluations.
Then there’s John Fetterman, the iconoclastic young senator from Pennsylvania who broke with his party on Israel and immigration. Will he continue to stand up against the liberals? Is he serious in his collaboration with the Trump administration? And would he wear shorts and a hoodie to his own inauguration?
Oh, and never count out AOC.
4. What will the courts do?
We tend to focus on the Supreme Court, given the magnitude of the consequences of its decisions. But even though it receives thousands of petitions, the Supreme Court only examines around 100 cases per year. That means the vast majority of federal cases will remain in lower district and circuit courts.
During his term, Biden appointed 235 federal judges – just one more than Trump. This means that many courthouses are now sharply divided, so that even the famously liberal 9th Circuit it’s not quite what it used to be. Then there is a whole other issue of state courts, which are also increasingly conservative.
All of this will make the fight against Trump much more difficult for liberal attorneys general and progressive interest groups who want to prevent the new administration from rolling back environmental rules and protections for trans people.
5. Will the wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East end?
Whatever your view of geopolitics, the images and stories that have emerged Russia’s invasion of Ukraine And Israel’s campaign against Hamas were heartbreaking: towns razed, children mutilated, prisoners And hostages torture.
If you want to be hailed as a peace negotiator for the history books, you better act quickly.
At this point, it’s hard to see either conflict ending soon, even with Trump’s unpredictable and unconventional involvement. Then again, perhaps his unorthodox approach is just what other world leaders need to accelerate their peace efforts.
Do it quickly, Mr. President-elect, and it could win you a Nobel Peace Prize. Just imagine showing this medal to guests at Mar-a-Lago. But if you want to be hailed as a peace negotiator for the history books, you better act quickly.
And of course, there is the unexpected – the unknown, to borrow from Donald Rumsfeld. But we can’t worry about that. American democracy still stands, the New York Mets have Juan SotoAnd “Merry Gilmore 2” is coming soon. Not bad, in my opinion. Not bad at all.