Famous wrestler Sting, when describing his character’s change in 1996 from a light baby face to a darker, enigmatic persona, came up with the perfect axiom for predicting the future. The Stinger noted, “The only thing that’s sure about Sting is that nothing is sure. »
It would be the same for sports media. Some trends seem obvious (increased investment in women’s sports media; traditional media consolidation and layoffs; Netflix becoming a larger sports player; more media outlets shifting to sports betting revenue), but who knows? We nevertheless offer you some hypotheses for 2025.
1. Tom Brady will leave broadcasting before the start of 2025 NFL season
I’ve already said I’d put a lot of money on Brady not finishing his 10-year, $375 million contract with Fox, taking into account all of his various business interests outside of broadcasting, including ownership. This remains true. The safest prediction would be that Brady leaves his contract with Fox after three or four years. But I’m going bold and saying that Brady gets more involved with the Las Vegas Raiders this offseason and decides to go all-in with NFL ownership and his production company by the start of the next season of the NFL.
2. WNBA audience will increase in 2025
This is not the time for women’s sports; This has been a movement for some time. Game 5 of the WNBA Finals – 67-62 overtime thriller won by the New York Liberty – averaged 2.15 million viewers, the most-watched WNBA Finals game in 25 years. The finale averaged 1.6 million viewers, an increase of 115 percent from last season. This capped off a fantastic year in viewership for the league – and this is where we absolutely mention that the catalyst for the viewership explosion was interest in Caitlin Clark. In total, there have been 32 WNBA television windows across its media partners that exceeded 1 million viewers during the 2024 season, including the WNBA Draft. This broke the previous record of 15.
Starting in the 2026 season, you’ll see new partners NBC and Amazon Prime Video under a long-term TV rights deal, and you should expect them to invest big marketing dollars. Under the new agreements, Disney, NBC and Amazon will distribute more than 125 regular season and playoff games nationally each season, including a minimum of 25 regular season games on Disney platforms, 50 regular season games on NBCUniversal platforms and 30 regular matches. seasonal games on Amazon Prime Video. The league will also receive a bump of a new franchise (Golden State Valkyries) and greater off-season visibility for star players with the new 3-on-3 women’s basketball league, Unrivaled, launching in January 2025.
Clark’s star will continue to rise, and if you think that bad faith actors bashing her for culture war reasons are going to impact the viewership, I refer you to those who predicted that the viewership of the NFL was definitely over. This is the up arrow for the WNBA.
3. ESPN Flagship will be an immediate success
ESPN’s direct-to-consumer streaming service, named “Flagship,” will allow consumers to access all of ESPN’s networks without a traditional pay TV subscription. This includes the full ESPN+ lineup and what is currently airing on ESPN Linear. There will also be integration with ESPN Fantasy and ESPN Bet. Reports indicate a starting price of between $25 and $30 per month, and I think that’s the price that will attract consumers initially. I believe early subscriber numbers will exceed expectations, especially given the recent significant increases on YouTube TV.
Research firm MoffettNathanson, which provides information on media, communications and technology trends to institutional investors, issued a note this month predicting that “after an initial investment of $75 million over the of fiscal 2025 to make the service operational (in anticipation of a launch at the end of fiscal 2025, in time for the start of the NFL season), we anticipate an initial million paying subscribers in fiscal 2026, generating subscription revenue of just over $200 million and advertising revenue of $20 million. I predict this number will be higher by FY2026.
4. Kevin Harlan to call NBA games for Amazon Prime Video
Ian Eagle has a deal as one of Amazon’s main streamers, and I predict Harlan will join him. A combination of 1-2 games featuring Eagle and Harlan will give the streamer massive instant credibility in the live gaming space.
5. ESPN will withdraw from its current program MLB contract after the 2025 season
This is probably as close as you can get to a layup prediction. MoffettNathanson said walking away could save Disney/ESPN up to $600 million in expenses, although most expect a restructuring of the contract. Will ESPN get local games for Flagship?
6. The UFC will be split between ESPN and Netflix
No information from me – just a guess that the UFC ends up echoing WWE and landing with both Disney and Netflix for its product. This is how Netflix begins to get into sports rights.
UFC’s Dana White will seek — and get, according to Richard Deitsch’s predictions — huge media contracts in 2025. (Steve Marcus/Getty Images)
7. ESPN finally commits to a daily studio show dedicated to women’s basketball during the WNBA season
You have a transcendent audience with Clark, a litany of interesting All-Stars from A’ja Wilson to Kelsey Plum and an appetite for intrigue on and off the court. If ESPN wants to take credit for growing women’s basketball in America, as it always does, that’s not even up for debate given the multiple outlets it has. If this doesn’t exist next year, the network should be crushed.
8. The Pac-12 will attract at least one branded media company for its media rights
In November, the Pac-12 announced that Octagon would serve as the agency of record to guide the conference through the media rights landscape. That signals to me that someone with a certain weight is going to bite, and I’ll take a flyer saying it’s going to be WBD Sports, whose 2024 has been defined by losing the rights to the NBA on TNT. The 2026-27 season will see Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Gonzaga, San Diego State and Utah State join Oregon State and the Washington State. The league needs one additional football school to meet the threshold and remain recognized as a conference within the FBS division.
9. ESPN hires an active player or coach for the NBA Finals
It’s been clear for some time that ESPN management doesn’t want a two-person booth for its NBA Finals coverage. It’s also clear that the network wants a notable name (say, Milwaukee Bucks coach Doc Rivers) to sell under the marquee.
Who could it be? My colleague Andrew Marchand stated in this piece in June that ESPN should already be courting the likes of LeBron James or Steph Curry in case they ever consider broadcasting. It’s an interesting game in the long run. What I think is very likely for 2025 is someone like Chris Paul becoming a guest game analyst for the Finals. Longtime NBA coach Monty Williams would also be an interesting outlier.
(Top photo: Michael Reaves/Getty Images)