Welcome to the final From the political office newsletter of the year, in which we examine the key scenarios that will shape Washington and beyond in 2025. (See our recap of the dynamics that defined 2024 here.) We will be back on Friday January 3rd.
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5 major intrigues that will shape 2025
By Sahil Kapur
With the new Congress opening on January 3 and President-elect Donald Trump’s term beginning on January 20, here are five big news stories to watch in the new year.
1. How will Mike Johnson manage the majority of the Tiny House?
For Mike Johnson, getting re-elected Speaker of the House on Jan. 3, if he can do it, might be the easy part. Next, he will face a series of difficult tasks with a razor-thin majority in the House: a new round of government funding on March 14, a debt limit deadline, and a major bill (perhaps two ) to advance Trump’s agenda on immigration, border security, energy and tax cuts. This will be a tall order, especially for a speaker who came out of nowhere to take office just 14 months ago. Johnson, who won Trump’s endorsement who will remain president on Monday, is preparing to face the most important period of his career.
2. What will define the John Thune era?
For the first time in 18 years, Senate Republicans will have a new leader, John Thune taking the reins from Mitch McConnell. Will Thune’s leadership style be similar or different? McConnell built his power by gaining a deep understanding of his conference and following his wishes. On what issues, if any, will Thune say no to Trump, and how?
3. How will Democrats handle Trump 2.0?
There are indications that Democrats, burned by their failures in 2024, I want to treat Trump differently than during his first term. Less panic about his social media posts and cultural taunts; focus more on the economic issues that caused voters to turn against them. It’s notable that some Democrats’ harshest criticism of Trump after the election came when he said it would be ‘difficult’ lower food prices. But it remains to be seen whether Democrats will have the discipline to stay focused on table issues.
4. Which stars will emerge from the new Congress?
The 2025 congressional class will bring a new cast of characters for both parties. For Republicans on Capitol Hill, currency will equal proximity to the Trump White House, power to advance his agenda and the ability to go viral in conservative media. For Democrats, the question is who will be the face of the second resistance? They spent the final days of 2024 casting Trump as a puppet of billionaires like Elon Musk and demanding a debt ceiling hike to grease the wheels of Tump’s tax cut bill.
5. Are Trump and his allies seeking revenge?
After implementing a program of retaliation against perceived political enemies, Trump said this month in an interview with “Meeting the press” that he wants to turn the page. “I’m not looking to go back to the past. Revenge will come through success,” he said. But his actions tell a different story. He has already filed a lawsuit against media entities like ABC News And an Iowa pollster before taking office. On Capitol Hill, he will have allies in places of power, with committee chairs and subpoena power to investigate. Will they use their power to settle Trump’s scores?
That’s all that’s coming from the politburo for now. If you have any comments (like or dislike), please email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com
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