From sudden ice ages to ferocious superstorms, scientists have long warned of scary apocalyptic scenariosand now some governments and experts have taken steps to start preparing for the worst.
For example, dozens of climatologists recently sent a letter to Northern European leaders, warning of a major shift in Atlantic Ocean Current due to human-caused climate change – a change that could trigger abrupt shifts in weather patterns and damage ecosystems around the world.
This is a new development in the long-standing concern over the Southern Atlantic overturning circulation (AMOC), which also served as material for the disaster film “Day After Tomorrow” (which took many liberties with the scientific consensus).
“I think it is reasonable for the Nordic countries to think about how they could prepare for the closure of AMOC,” said Baylor Fox-Kemper, an AMOC official. professor of earth, environmental and planetary sciences has Brown Universityin an email to USA TODAY. “Similarly, Florida should consider stronger hurricanes and sea level rise, California should consider larger wildfires, and India should consider more intense heat waves.”
Governments around the world are facing and preparing for dramatic disaster scenarios that could occur over the coming decades as climate change continues. Here are some of them:
What if AMOC collapses?
Climate change could lead to a collapse of the Southern Atlantic overturning circulationa system of ocean currents that carries warm water across the North Atlantic and gives Europe its mild climate. Such a collapse could trigger rapid weather and climate changes in the United States, Europe and elsewhere. If this were to happen, it could cause an ice age in Europe and sea level rise in cities like Boston and New York, as well as more powerful storms and hurricanes along the East Coast.
“Such a change in ocean circulation would have devastating and irreversible impacts, particularly for the Nordic countries, but also for other parts of the world,” the scientists said in an October letter to the Nordic Council of Ministers, which includes five countries, including Denmark and Sweden. , and three autonomous territories.
The letter urges the council to take action that could involve calling for global reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
“Preparedness involves science and realism about the magnitude of the effects, who will be most affected and what can be done,” Fox-Kemper said. “In the case of the AMOC, only emissions reductions can reduce the danger of changing it. These same nations and states can also reduce their emissions, although this has proven difficult, in part because those who emit are often far from those who will be affected.”
The United Kingdom faces climate change
AMOC is not the only climate issue that worries governments.
In the United Kingdom, the new government Advanced Research and Invention Agency (similar to US DARPA) focuses on two linked climate tipping points, according to MIT Technology Review. “One is the accelerated melting of the Greenland ice sheet, which could significantly raise sea levels. The other is the weakening of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre, a huge counter-clockwise current. clockwise south of Greenland and which may have played a role in the outbreak of the Little Ice Storm around the 14th century.
By developing an early warning system, “we might be able to change the way we think about climate change and think about our preparedness for this phenomenon,” said Sarah Bohndiek, director of the research program and professor of biomedical physics. at the Institute. University of Cambridge.
Fox-Kemper said that “preparing for climate change is something that countries have within their control, although it is likely to be costly and only partially effective.”
Pacific Early Warning System
In the Pacific Ocean, in the small island nation of Timor-Leste, climate change “poses significant challenges to the country’s development due to rising average temperatures, rising sea levels, tropical cyclones , floods and prolonged droughts,” according to the report. United Nations Environment Program.
A new United Nations early warning system will help expand and improve Timor-Leste’s climate information capabilities and early warning systems.
“Early warning systems are a cost-effective and proven measure for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation, which have been shown to save lives, livelihoods and ecosystems from related risks. climate,” the UN said.
With climate change, the frequency and intensity of climate-related risks are expected to increase, according to the UN. Early warning systems “have great potential to avert disaster risks and minimize losses and damages caused by climate-related hazards by supporting well-informed, science-based decision-making.”
“Giving just 24 hours’ notice of an imminent dangerous event could reduce damage by 30 percent, while investing just $800 million in an early warning system in developing countries could prevent losses of 3 to 16 billion dollars per year.”
Rainforests under siege
A new early warning system uses satellite data to sound the alarm about growing threats to the world’s rainforests, including worsening drought and logging, and aims to prevent they reach a point of no return. Supported by the The National Geographic Society and the Swiss watch manufacturer RolexNearly 60 international scientists designed the system to track the growing dangers facing the world’s tropical forests, which are vital to protecting the climate and nature.
The new Tropical Forest Vulnerability Index tracks and analyzes the impact of climate change and land use – such as clearing for agriculture – on local forests, and how they respond to these stressors .
Contributor: Reuters