The confidence of business leaders in the The US economy has been reduced by half since the start of the year, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co., while businesses present themselves with the president’s impact Donald TrumpThe prices and wider Geopolitical uncertainties.
The latest Outlook survey of the Company of Financial Services, published on Wednesday, revealed that optimism for the economy fell 32% in June, against 65% in January. In addition, 25% of respondents said they are expecting a recession at some point this year, compared to only 8% in January.
Why it matters
The concerns about the trajectory of the US economy were largely fed by the Trump’s commercial agenda, which led to significant market volatility and fears increased by an increase in costs for businesses and consumers. However, these anxieties were somewhat tempered by the current break on reciprocal rates, as well as the Temporary relief of trade tensions Between the United States and China.
Although the investigation was widely carried out before the start of the recent conflict between Israel and Iran and was completed before the targeted strikes of America during the weekend, this could contribute to these existing economic anxieties.
An expert said Nowsweek That a re -esteales would represent “another opposing shock from supply to the economy”.
What to know
The JPMorgan survey was carried out between June 4 and 18, attracting responses from more than 700 owners and managers representing companies on the intermediate market, defined as those with annual income ranging from $ 20 million to $ 500 million.
Four out of 10 (44%) said they had delayed their commercial plans to a certain extent this year, with 74% citing “the uncertainty of the policy” as the reason for this decision. From this group, 37% cited market volatility and customer demand trips, while 35% listed geopolitical events as a contributing factor.
Overall, the challenges highlighted by business leaders included uncertain economic conditions (55%), prices (41%) and income growth and sales (41%).
Evan VUCCI / AP Photo
The results reflect those of the recent Conference Board report on the confidence of CEOs, which experienced a drop of 26 points in the second quarter to 34. This fell below the 50 -point threshold, which indicates more negative than positive responses, and has reached the lowest level since the end of 2022.
The New York -based reflection group noted that it was the most abrupt quarterly decrease in the 48 years of history of the survey. CEOs cited prices and geopolitical instability as the main sources of risk for their industries.
Tuesday also saw the release of the latest consumer confidence survey of the Conference Board. These closely monitored gauge signals change in consumer feeling and consumer expenses, a major contributor to the national economy.
The consumer confidence index dropped 5.4 points in June to 93.0, despite the consensual forecasts anticipating an improvement compared to May. The current index of situations, which measures the perception of consumers of current business and labor market conditions, also dropped, while the short -term expectations index fell to 69.0, well below the 80 -point threshold.
The thinking group said that “generally reports an upcoming recession”.
“The prices remained at the top of consumer minds and were frequently associated with concerns about their negative impacts on the economy and prices,” said Stephanie Guichard, principal economist for global indicators at Conference Board.
What people say
Matt sand, co-head of JP Morgan Commercial Banking, said Nowsweek:: “Business leaders manage through many unknowns – from political uncertainty to market volatility and beyond – and carefully recalibrate their strategic plans when they are looking for more clarity on the future.”
“Business leaders are the most concerned about uncertain economic conditions before the second half of the semester,” he continued. “Other key factors such as prices, political uncertainty and geopolitical events are also in the lead. Although the short term may seem uncertain, they work with a long -term vision, focusing on what they can control to manage and develop their businesses.”
Matthew Martin, American main economist at Oxford Economics, said Nowsweek:: “When uncertainty is high, there is a strong incentive to postpone such major commercial decisions, whether investment or staff, until the situation is clearer. This is a major reason to expect the private fixed investment this year, contributing to slower growth overall, and a slower rate of commercial hiring, which will slow up the increase in real growth (and therefore consumer expenses). “
Martin added: “The growing tensions of the Middle East represent another offer that is unfavorable to the economy. Although for the moment, the worst scenarios seem to have been avoided for the moment, any change of oil supply in the markets would have ramifications at the national level.”
Stephanie Guichard, principal economist for global indicators on the board of directors, said: “Consumer confidence was weakened in June, erasing almost half of the sharp gains in May. The decline was largely based on components, consumer assessments of the current situation and their expectations for the future contributing to deterioration.
Peter Simon, professor in the Northeastern University economy department, said Nowsweek This economic uncertainty “is always a big problem in the world given the new war between Israel and Iran and especially now that the United States is involved”.
“Of course, the risk of inflation and recession (stagflation) is increasing due to the question of oil with Iran,” said Simon, adding that the measured decreases in consumer confidence is also a serious concern, because “when consumers are uncertain in the economy they stop buying”.
What happens next
Despite a drop in optimism and growing fears during a recession, 78% of respondents in the JPMorgan survey also said they expect revenues and sales to increase or remain the same this year.
Last week, the president of the federal reserve, Jerome Powell hang on interest rate drops.
However, Powell warned against “great uncertainty” due to the impact of prices, adding: “Everyone I know provides for a significant increase in inflation in the months from prices.”
Update, 25/06/25, 7:18 am and: This article was updated with the comments of Matt Sable, co-responsible for JP Morgan Commercial Banking.
Update, 25/06/25, 11:15 a.m. HE: This article was updated to clarify when the investigation took place.