Which then comes in the Trump-Musk quarrel: from the political bureau

Welcome to the online version of Political officeAn evening newsletter that brings you the latest report and analysis of the NBC News Policy team from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign campaign.

In today’s edition, Kristen Welker plunges into what then comes to the break between President Donald Trump and Elon Musk. In addition, our Capitol Hill team examines the senators who could do or break the “big and beautiful bill” of Trump. And Shannon Pettypice answers the question of this week’s reader on the American-Chinese trade war.

Before diving into all of this, two editorial pieces this Friday afternoon:

• Kilmar Abrego Garcia, the Maryland man whose erroneous deportation to El Salvador has given way to a prolonged battle on a regular procedure, was returned to the United States Facing loads of human smuggling in Tennessee.
• The Supreme Court has authorized members of the Government Ministry To access data from social security administration.

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– Adam Wollner

What is the next step in the quarrel between Trump and Musk?

By Kristen Welker

The quarrel between Elon Musk and President Donald Trump Ugly yesterday In an epic confrontation between the richest man in the world and the most powerful man in the world – and he is not yet clear where the confrontation will then go.

The Chief of the White House Staff, Susie Wiles, told me this morning “No plans” for a telephone call Between Trump and Musk today, despite at least one report that it was a possibility. But just because there is nothing in books that the two men will not have an impromptu call. After all, Trump has a personal mobile phone where he often talks to everyone, world leaders to journalists. And an administration official told me that anything can happen, and they would like to “defuse a very unhappy situation”.

While the White House may seek to refuse the temperature, some of the president’s allies were quick to continue Musk. Steve Bannon, a former Trump’s White House advisor, told me that the president should “withdraw all the contracts associated with Elon Musk” and launch major “immediately”. Bannon also said: “Thus spoke ketamine”, in a sign that some of Trump’s allies focus on the alleged consumption of Musk’s drugs. (Musk said He took ketamine to treat depression.)

The challenge in all of this is Trump’s future Signature legislationwhich includes tax reduction extensions, elimination of the tax on advice and overtime, as well as discounts and modifications of federal programs, including Medicaid and food coupons.

Musk ransacked the “big and beautiful invoice”, arguing that it would bloat the country’s debt. Sources of the White House and Capitol Hill told me that even if the opposition of Musk could embrace the Republican Senators who are already opposed to the measurement, Musk is no longer voting on the “No” column at this stage. I am also told that if these senators had to choose between Trump and Musk, they would choose Trump each time.

We will talk more about the next stages of the Trump National Policy Bill on “Meet The Press” this Sunday, with exclusive interviews with meaning. James Lankford, R-Okla. and Cory Booker, DN.J.

Behind the scenes: Trump’s team takes the quarrel seriously: the aid of the White House rushed into at least two meetings in camera Thursday to develop strategies to know if and how to respond to the Musk’s social media dam.

Vice-president JD Vance was with Trump on Thursday when the tweets started and they spoke several times in the afternoon, according to a person familiar with the events of the day. Trump encouraged Vance to be diplomatic about Musk if he is asked about him, said the person.

Meanwhile, Trump plans to sell or give the Red Tesla he bought in March, according to a senior White House official.

Learn more about the Trump-Musk quarrel →

Senators to watch the Republicans make changes to the great bill of Trump

By Sahil Kapur, Julie Tsirkin and Frank Thorp V

In the middle of the back and forth between Donald Trump and Elon Musk this week, the Senate Republican leaders juggled with a multitude of competing requests while they are preparing to take – and to make changes – to the “big and beautiful bill” adopted by the Chamber.

They can finally afford to lose only three GOP votes on the Senate soil, assuming that all the Democrats oppose the package as planned. Here are the senators who could do or break the bill:

Rand Paul: He is the only republican senator to have voted against this legislation at each stage of the path. He exploded the point of military spending, the enormous increase in deficits and, in particular, the increase in debt of $ 5. Paul supports a key element of the package – an extension of Trump’s tax discounts in 2017 – but he wants to compensate for it with billions of dollars in additional expense discounts, on which the GOP has no hope of finding a consensus.

Susan Collins: The Maine senator is the only republican to represent a state that Democrats are constantly gaining at the presidential level. And she faces a re -election this year. Its trajectory has been revealed, to support the initial budgetary resolution to the vote against the revised version. A key reason for his opposition? The concerns that the Medicaid Nudit Cups to low -income and older constituents.

Lisa Murkowski: When she voted for the budgetary plan in April which launched the process of drafting legislation, the Alaska republican quickly followed it with a large set of grievances which will have to be addressed, or it will be “unable to support” the final product. This includes Medicaid changes, the cost of tax reductions and the elimination of clean energy tax credits that benefit from its state.

Ron Johnson: The Wisconsin Republican has come up against the bill and his estimated 2.4 billions of dollars Contribution to the deficit, insisting on the fact that he cannot vote for that as written. He criticized the idea of ​​a megabill, calling for breaking it and limiting the debt ceiling hike. Trump asked him to be “less negative” at a meeting at the White House this week, Johnson said.

Learn more about other key senators to watch →

Seize the third rail: The Senate Republicans open the door to reducing the “waste” of health insurance in the Trump Agenda bill

✉️ Mailbag: Who loses in an American-Chinese trade war?

Thank you to everyone who sent us an email! This week’s reader’s question concerns the current trade war between the United States and China.

“Who is in worse form if the two countries are no longer negotiated?”

To answer this, we turned to the main political journalist Shannon pettypicewho covered the ins and outs of Trump’s pricing agenda. Here is his answer:

The United States and China have a lot to lose by cutting trade links with each other, but in some respects, not as much as they did before the first wave of Chinese rates that Trump imposed in 2018.

Chinese companies have moved production abroad, to neighboring countries like Vietnam and even Mexico, while Chinese officials worked to stimulate trade with other business partners, such as the European Union. The share of the total Chinese exports to the United States fell to around 14% in 2024, compared to 19% in 2018. In the entire Chinese economy, US exports represent 3% of Chinese gross domestic product and a sustained American rate by 60% could reduce China’s GDP by 2 percentage points, according to Goldman Sachs.

In short, it would be bad for the Chinese economy, but not entirely paralyzing. The Chinese economy is not on the strongest foot at the moment. Its growth has slowed down from the cocovated pandemic and the country is struggling with a collapse on its real estate market, which has wiped the savings for many Chinese.

The United States has also worked to reduce its dependence on China in recent years, and US companies have increasingly moved its manufacture of China. China represents around 15% of the total American imports, compared to around 22% in 2018. But the United States still depends strongly on China in a number of key areas, such as rare crucial land metals for the American manufacturing of cars and defense equipment. According to Goldman Sachs, around a third of American imports from China are in the product categories where the vast majority of these articles come from China. This means that even a temporary judgment of shipments from China could lead to shortages of supply chain, such as those observed during the cocovio pandemic.

But which flashes first or offers more concessions in a commercial confrontation could have as much to do with politics as the economy. China removed the limits of the mandate to President Xi Jinping in 2018, essentially allowing it to stay in power for life. Meanwhile, the United States will have mid-term elections next year and another presidential competition in 2028.

It’s all of the political bureau for the moment. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner and Dylan EBS.

If you have comments – tastes or don’t like – send us an email to politiquenewsletter@nbcuni.com

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