Trump’s great bill has history on its side: from the political bureau

Welcome to the online version of Political officeAn evening newsletter that brings you the latest report and analysis of the NBC News Policy team from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign campaign.

It is a “big and beautiful” edition of the newsletter today, while we decompose political ramifications, the historical context and the next stages for President Donald Trump and the GOP after the Chamber passed the party’s national policy package.

Programming note: We take a few days off for the holiday weekend and we will be back on Tuesday, May 27. Spend a commemorative day Restful!

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– Adam Wollner

Trump has the story on his side with his “big and beautiful bill”

By Jonathan Allen

After the Chamber has adopted a bill for President Donald Trump’s agenda Early Thursday morning By a single vote, the measurement faces more obstacles to the Senate.

But don’t bet it becomes the law.

There is a long history of presidents brought to the congress to offer their main legislative priority, even when other articles fall on the edge of the road. This is especially true when the president’s party controls the two chambers, as the Trump’s GOP currently does. Due to the rules of Congress, bills on budget reconciliation – like the one Trump tries to go to his office – only needs a simple majority to go to the Senate.

For this reason, Trump was intelligent to launch a series of his main proposals in a single bill covering a large part of his tax program, immigration and more.

Even for the Republicans who are not in love with each provision, it is politically perilous to obstruct a president of his own party. When Push manages to push, little will be ready to alienate their basic voters to kill the plans of the newly elected president. And if Trump loses the battle, he will make sure that voters of the GOP know which legislators have betrayed him.

There can ultimately be a political drawback for some Republicans who remain with Trump with the broader electorate, but there is no advantage in transforming it into an enemy during a primary or general election. No republican can earn a state of swing or a district if the basis of the GOP does not prove to them. Trump may be more openly vindictive than the most recent presidents, but similar dynamics are still at stake.

In 1993, President Bill Clinton and a congress led by Democrats prioritized his economic recovery set – and not the most memorable “Hillarycare” health insurance proposal. He adopted the budget plan, while Hillarycare collapsed.

In June 2001, President George W. Bush, with a republican congress behind him, promulgated a significant tax reduction in bipartite votes in the House and Senate.

The Releunciation Act of President Barack Obama flew over the congress – with the Democrats who control the two chambers – in February 2009. And after months of fierce debate, it managed to sign the affordable care law in March 2010.

It can be argued that the main exception came in Trump’s first mandate when the Senate – during a decisive vote at the time. John McCain, R-Ariz. – Killed a push to repeal Obamacare. But Trump obtained a tax law of signing the congress led by the Republicans.

In 2021, the Congress led by Democrats quickly sent a Pandemic Recovery Bill to the office of President Joe Biden at the start of his mandate. The rest of his plan “Build Back Better” has encountered clocks and had to be reformulated and struck to cross the finish line.

Some Republicans can be distant from Trump’s agenda as the mid-term elections are approaching, but this day has not yet come. And the smart money is finally signed his “big and beautiful bill”.

How the Trump agenda bill will shape the next elections

By Ben Kamisar and Alexandra Marquez

Megabill des Républicains should now play a major role in developing the fight for which the house controls after the next elections.

Democrats need a net gain of only three seats next year to regain control of the room, after the GOP won the smallest majority of the room in almost 100 years in the last elections. And they have already started to swivel the waves with attacks accusing the MEDICAID GOP and to prioritize the richest Americans.

But the Republicans bet that the measure maintains the key to prove to voters why they should grant them two years of unified control of Washington, as opposed to the mid-term reaction which generally strikes the president of the president. The GOP sees a bill that could energize Trump supporters by adopting its agenda and offering key legislators to swing tangible victories to boast on the campaign track.

“The American people gave us a mandate in November. They sent a message with their vote. They gave power on this side the aisle, and we will use it to improve their lives,” said Chamber Mike Johnson, R-La., Said.

The minority head of the Hakeem Jeffries room, Dn.y., sounded a different note: “When the votes are finally expressed in this first Tuesday in next year, this day could very well be the day when the Républicains de la Chambre lost control of the House of Representatives of the United States.”

Learn more about the mid-term policy of the bill →

Developes: Only two Republicans of the Chamber, representatives of the session session, Thomas Massie from Kentucky and Warren Davidson de l’Ohio, joined each Democrat to vote against the bill, saying that he will ball the American deficit more.

While Davidson’s opposition was a last -minute surprise, Massie had long specified where he stood on the legislation.

As Ben Kamisar and Scott Bland writeMassie is one of the few Republicans who found himself in disagreement with Trump several times but who lived to tell the story. The question is whether the tension evaporates as it did before or if Trump really takes the step of supporting a main challenger against him in 2026.

Before Thursday’s vote, Trump criticized Massie as “stands” which “should be passed outside the office” – Massie’s criticism Pointed in fundraising calls For his own campaign.

“It’s a step in place,” said Massie about Trump threats. “In 2020, he wanted me to be thrown from the GoP, so losing a seat would not be as bad as being thrown away, isn’t it?”

“I think it’s a hyperbole from him. I am not worried about it,” continued Massie.

Learn more about Massie →

➡️ Explanteer: Here is what is in the vast Trump Agenda Bill House Republicans has just passedby Sahil Kapur and Scott Wong

✉️ Mailbag: the megabill du Gop moves to the Senate

Thank you to everyone who sent us an email! Here is the question of this week’s reader:

“On the expense bill, will he go through the Senate?” How much will oppose it? “

One thing is clear at this stage, the hours deleted from adoption by a massive bill for Trump’s agenda: the Senate will not pass it because it is currently written.

For weeks, GOP senators described a variety of concerns With the measure, their colleagues from the house have set up. This list includes: the impact on the American deficit, the level of Medicaid reductions, the decline in tax credits on clean energy and the higher ceiling for the tax deduction of the State and local.

It will now be the work of the leader of the majority of the Senate, John Thune, to resolve all these questions in the coming weeks. He cannot afford to lose three republican votes on the Senate soil – and he is already lost Senator Rand Paul from Kentuckywhich firmly opposes a provision of the bill which increases the ceiling of the debt. Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin even said that he still wanted to divide radical legislation into two parts.

But as Jonathan Allen writes above, when Push manages to push, the skeptical republicans of the Senate may have trouble hindering the president and his program.

Another complicating factor is that the changes made by the Senate to the package will have to return by the House before the GOP legislators can send the bill to the Trump office, which they hope to do by July 4.

– Adam Wollner

It’s all of the political bureau for the moment. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner and Ben Kamisar.

If you have comments – tastes or don’t like – send us an email to politiquenewsletter@nbcuni.com

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