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The opening questions can be anxiety-inducing, even for the best fantasy managers. Here’s a traffic light report to help you prepare for Week 16.
✅ Green light
WR Brian Thomas Jr. at Raiders
It took the Jaguars a while to develop into their best offensive player, but we’re finally there. Thomas Jr. has absorbed 36 juicy targets over the past three weeks, and he’s turned that into a 22-267-3 return. The Raiders won’t have strong DL Maxx Crosby, and the Las Vegas secondary has collapsed in recent weeks.
RB Patrick Taylor Jr. to Miami
Isaac Guerendo is not expected to play this week, which means the Niners move down another notch on their depth chart. Kyle Shanahan has consistently proven that he can bring almost anything back to fantasy relevance. Miami’s rushing defense is an average game.
Quarterback Baker Mayfield in Dallas
Although Mayfield’s roster is close to 100%, he has still only started in about half of Yahoo leagues. Let’s correct this number. Mayfield is averaging 258.4 passing yards per game and his touchdown equity is more secure now that Mike Evans is healthy again. The Cowboys have allowed the third most points to opposing quarterbacks.
Quarterback Jared Goff in Chicago
You’ll want to do a quick weather check, but otherwise everything is in place for Goff, who has increased the passing volume to combat all of the Lions’ injuries on defense. And with David Montgomery out indefinitely, it’s possible that Detroit’s playbook contains more goal-line-ready passing plays.
RB Aaron Rodgers vs. Rams
He’s coming off his best two games of the year, rekindling the magic he and Davante Adams regularly displayed in Green Bay. Sunday’s game against the Rams has some freakout potential – forget how the Rams played last week, focus on the LAR-Buffalo game two weeks ago.
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🫤 Yellow light
RB Kendre Miller at Packers
It’s a shame we can’t put him in the green light section, but the Saints are huge underdogs at Lambeau Field and you worry about the game scenario. Still, if Alvin Kamara (groin) is scratched as expected, Miller probably has a safe path to 12-15 touches, and he’s looked decent in his opportunities over the past couple of weeks. Return keys are forever fantastic currency.
WR Terry McLaurin vs. Eagles
He was locked up in the first meeting (just a catch), but I suspect OC Kliff Kingsbury will make key adjustments in the divisional rematch, McLaurin’s torrid form of late (20-248-5) makes him unshakable in my mind.
Strange TE Brenton at Raiders
Strange gobbled up 11 catches last week (we love that), but his long reception was only nine yards (we shrug). This is what a checkdown artist looks like. My guess is that Strange already has 5-6 catches in his back pocket this week, so if your league offers some form of PPR scoring, Strange is in play as a sleeper tight end. There’s nothing to worry about covering the Las Vegas seams.
WR Keenan Allen vs. Lions
It’s not easy to trust Chicago’s passing game, but at least the target tree is tight: Allen has 41 targets in his last four games and four touchdowns in that span. He got the Lions for 73 yards and two scores on Thanksgiving, and Detroit’s defense has suffered even more injuries since then.
WR Jerry Jeudy to Bengals
Normally this would be an auto-start game – Jeudy is on the heater and the Bengals are struggling in the secondary. But it’s possible that the move to Dorian Thompson-Robinson could unplug Cleveland’s entire passing game. Jeudy is not a proactive pick for me in Week 16.
🛑 Red light
RB Isiah Pacheco vs. Texans
He’s been back for three weeks, but he hasn’t shaken Kareem Hunt yet — their usage was 50-50 last week against Cleveland. And with Patrick Mahomes surely at less than 100%, the Kansas City offense will not have its usual dynamism.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson to Bills: He’s been slow since returning from a foot injury, and it’s possible Antonio Gibson offers more juice in the passing game. With New England being a heavy underdog in Buffalo, the flow of the game could push Gibson (a legitimate sleeper) to work more this week.
WR Deebo Samuel Sr. at Dolphins
The Niners lost the key to Samuel’s game. outside the top 50 for five consecutive weekswith a maximum of 35 yards. His last touchdown came in Week 6. Our game is about numbers, not names.
QB Jordan Love vs. Saints
The Packers have been great since the bye, but the emphasis has been on the running game – Love is averaging just 23 passes per game during this five-week sample. New Orleans is a 14-point underdog on Monday, so the flow of the game is unlikely to be Love’s friend. His last top-10 fantasy game came in Week 7.
WR Amari Cooper vs. Patriots
Two weeks ago, Cooper absorbed 14 juicy targets, but that number dropped to zero in the victory in Detroit. Perhaps more alarmingly, Cooper was used as a rotation player, playing only 46% of offensive snaps. The Bills are 14-point favorites over the Patriots, suggesting Buffalo can likely ice this game with a run-oriented approach.
QB Michael Penix Jr. vs. Giants
The Falcons made the right choice fortunately, put on the bench Kirk Cousins, but I suspect the Atlanta coaching staff will want to integrate Penix with conservative, low-volume play. It’s also possible that the mediocre Giants won’t put up much of a fight. Efficiency should be good with Penix, but I worry he’ll throw around 20-23 passes, which caps his fantasy ceiling.