The Liberal Party of Mark Carney takes a four percent lead on the percentage on the Pierre Hairyvre conservatives on the eve of Monday general electionsThe new data from Ipsos suggest.
But the tight national race obscures the advantage of the liberals in the main provinces of Ontario and Quebec which will probably determine whether the party receives a fourth consecutive mandate for Canadian voters.
The Ipsos survey, carried out for Global News and published on Sunday, has the support of the liberals at 42% nationally, followed by 38% for conservatives and support for a figure – only nine percent – for the new Democrats of Jagmeet Singh.
The survey also suggests that, with a day to go, most Canadian voters have decided.
“At this late stage, only five percent of Canadians remain undecided, and 71% of those who decided to decision are” absolutely some “of their choice,” Ipsos said in a statement.
“With votes now locked up, the question is now focusing on the participation rate and motivation.”
Darrell BRICKER, a global CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, told Global News Sunday that it expects the participation rate to be high – around 70% of eligible voters – and that “really undecided” voters will probably not present themselves in the polls.
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“But there are people who are not necessarily undecided, but they lean in one way or another, and they will probably not be decided finally, finally until they are the day of the ballot,” said Brcker in an interview.
“In fact, we see in our survey that up to 10% of people decide when they enter the voting cabin. So there are still a lot to play here and that four percent are not a huge lead, it can be overcome.”
The Ipsos survey has Liberals from Carney leading to all regions of the country, with the exception of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and that is bad news for the Conservatives.
“The probable liberal victory key is in the most populous provinces in Canada: in Ontario, the Liberals benefit from an eight -point lead on the Conservatives, and in Quebec, the Liberals benefit from a two -digit lead on all other rivals,” Ipsos said in a press release.
“In addition, the Liberals also led by a wide margin to Atlantic Canada and cling to a small advantage in British Columbia, one of the most competitive regions of Canada – in particular due to the collapse of the NPD.”
Hairy was had to break through in Ontario to have a chance to form the government, given the number of seats to be won in the most populous province in Canada. According to Ipsos, liberals maintain an advantage of eight percent – 47% at 39% of the Conservatives in this province.
In Quebec, the Liberals are 40%, followed by the 25% Quebec Bloc, 24% Conservatives and new Democrats a fourth remote with only 6% support.
British Columbia, which has planned a race for three for a large part of the campaign, has the liberals of 42%, the conservatives at 39%and the NPD at 13%. The Green Party is three percent support in the province, potentially putting the Elizabeth May party co-leader in the siege of the Saanich-Gulf Islands in danger.
“This is really a story of two electoral campaigns,” said Bricker.
“There is west of the Ontario-Manitoba border, then it is in the east of the border of Manitoban. And east of the border of Ontario-Manitoba, the Liberals lead to each region. And unfortunately for the Conservative Party, it is there that most of the seats in the elections are found.”
Support for the two parties also seems to be distributed generational lines – although in a change in relation to recent Canadian political history, more older Canadians seem to break for Carney Liberals than the Conservative Party, which generally tends to do better in Canadians aged 55 or over.
“Another key to liberal success is their broad advance among the 55 and over, which are generally the most likely to present themselves and vote. Among voters aged 55 and over, almost half (48%) are favorable to the liberals, while 34% say they will vote conservative,” Ipsos said in a press release.
“On the other hand, among these 35 to 54 years, the curator led the liberals from 43% to 38%. Among young voters aged 18 to 34, liberals and conservatives are equal to 38% with the NPD in marginally improvement (15%). ”
Cutting recent trends, Ipsos found that the advantage of the conservatives among male voters decreased, 42% of male voters supporting the 40% hairy party to support the liberals. Among the voters, 44% are behind Carney’s party, against only 35% of the Conservatives.
“As always, the electoral participation will decide on the composition of the Parliament, and the size of the liberal victory will be summed up with the motivation of the supporters of each party to vote, and which party can translate these good intentions into ballot voting,” said Ipsos.
Ipsos interviewed 2,500 voters eligible for global news between April 22 and 26, with a mixture of online telephone surveys and at live intervance. The national figures are considered precise in the 2.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, although the margin of error is greater in the provincial and regional samples.
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