American consumer prices have increased less than scheduled in February, but the improvement is probably temporary in the context of aggressive import prices which should increase the costs of most goods in the coming months.
The consumer price index increased by 0.2% last month after accelerating 0.5% in January, the Labor Department’s Labor Statistics Office announced on Wednesday.
During the 12 months to February, the IPC increased by 2.8% after climbing three% in January. The economists interviewed by Reuters had planned that the IPC gained 0.3% and advanced 2.9% from one year to another.
The first complete inflation report of the administration of the American president Donald Trump always left prices at levels which, according to economists, are not consistent with the objective of two percent of the federal reserve. Trump at the beginning of the month launched a trade war, increasing the price On Chinese goods at 20% and imposing a new right of 25% on Canadian and Mexican imports, before getting back and providing an exemption of one month for all the goods that respect the rules of origin under the American-Mexican-Canadian agreement on trade.
Improved steel and aluminum prices entered into force This week, resulting in rapid Europe reprisals.
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Consumers, fearing higher prices, probably rushed to buy goods such as motor vehicles and other large tickets, which could appear in February and if not, then in the coming months.
Consumers inflation The expectations took place in February.
“The more inflation exceeds the target of the Fed, even if it is due to temporary forces like the prices, the greater expectations that expectations are unleashed,” American economist at Bank of America Securities said. “If that happened, the restoration of price stability would be much more difficult for the Fed.”
Excluding volatile food and energy components, the IPC climbed 0.2% in February after winning 0.4 PE Cent in January. During the 12 months to February, the so-called basic ICC increased by 3.1% after the 3.3% increase in January.
After the price cascade, economists have improved their inflation forecasts.
Goldman Sachs estimates that the price index for basic personal consumer expenses, one of the measures followed by the Fed for Monetary Policy, will be reproducing by 2.65% in January to around three% in December. He had planned the basic annual inflation of the PCE remaining in the area of the middle of two percent for the rest of the year.
The American central bank is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate during the unchanged night between 4.25% and 4.50% next Wednesday. The financial markets expect the Fed to take up the reduction rates in June due to the deterioration of economic perspectives, after stopping in January.
The policy rate has been reduced by 100 base points since September 2024, when the Fed began its softening cycle. The central bank increased the policy rate by 5.25 percentage points in 2022 and 2023 to tame inflation.