During lunch last week with a friend of mine – a great technological investor who was an ardent democrat – the speech quickly turned to politics. Like many businessmen, he refuses to broadcast his views publicly to avoid shooting fire. In private, it is more to come.
“I am ready to sacrifice small things for more important gains,” he said, referring to President Trump. “I am a fan of ideas; I am not always a fan of the execution. “For him, the” macro prevails over the microphone “.
The “macro” was a reference to the main factor that pushed centrist businessmen to Trump in 2024: a conviction that the expenses and the regulatory inclination of the Biden administration were out of control. And they wanted the way Joe Biden continued to denigrate large companies. This animus was so intense that even the strong economic gains of the last four years could not ensure that most of them support Kamala Harris.
While very few businessmen have praise public praise The president and his actions, in private, many of them argues for him. I thought that the chaos of last month – the unqualified appointments of the cabinet, the comfortable in Russia, and perhaps above all, the prices – could cause regrets in the business world. I have certainly seen concerns.
But a lot, perhaps even most, people I speak to private always applaud their approach to moving and rupture quietly – even if they start to feel doubts about specific problems, especially Ukraine and prices.
A Wall Street executive told me that Mr. Trump remains better than all alternatives. Another – quoting the upheaval of the government of Elon Musk – said he loved what he sees so much, he now regrets voting for Mrs. Harris.
It was not only that this group wanted to the intrusive regulatory policy of Mr. Biden. They also did not like the policies of diversity, equity and inclusion – or all that they derisively described me as “awakened things”. Now, leaders and bankers (my circles bow a little to Wall Street) celebrate the first signs of a reversal.
The business world is also encouraged by the number of business leaders who have been brought to the administration, in contrast that hit the Biden team, which was almost devoid of these people. This includes M. Musk, one of the most prosperous entrepreneurs in history (although his personal qualities, like Mr. Trump, are often considered unpleasant). Of course, for some, like crypto crowd, there is a lot of money at stake.
To be clear, many of these businessmen to Mr. Trump are more unfortunate with his predecessor than enthusiasm for him. Countertenly chosen it after defending other candidates, such as Nikki Haley, and the continuous flow of Trump’s appalling shares, such as his steep dismissal of several high military officers or the embrace of Vladimir Putin of Russia, could well undermine the approval of the administration in the business community. Among some eminent chiefs, He already has.
But at least so far, my anecdotal reports on the lasting support of Mr. Trump are equal to wider grooves. On the one hand, despite the recent layers, the stock market won another record just over a week ago, and is still above its level on election day, reflecting the general optimism of investors on the economic future of America. For another, the board of directors has just reported this confidence among the heads of management reached Its highest level in three years.
I could not disagree more strongly with my circle. I am in favor of criticisms of the Biden-Harris administration for having missed the boat on inflation, for having interfered too much with business and to push certain social problems which were out of step with the country. But in no case could I have voted for Mr. Trump, who is determined to dismantle the government while promoting the rich and who is imbued with despicable personal attributes.
Even if you focus only on the economy, Mr. Trump’s agitation circus can collide with disturbing signs.
While the economy continues to grow, inflation in January has exceeded expectations and remains stubbornly at 3%, greater than the target of the federal reserve by 2%. This prompted the Central Bank leaders to suggest that new interest rate drops will have to wait.
Trump’s main policies, such as his often threatened prices, could further increase inflation. As the cost of imported products increases, national producers of similar items can benefit from the occasion and also increase their prices.
Many in the business world have raised this. Note that Mr. Trump has already suspended his last attempt to impose prices, they argue that these movements are mainly negotiating stratagems. I’m not so sure. The speed and ferocity with which Mr. Trump issues his threats to me to fear that a substantial part of these prices is instituted (as he insisted last week will be the case with the imports of Mexico and Canada).
Meanwhile, restricting immigration and expelling millions of immigrants would tighten an already tight labor market, increasing wages – which would also increase prices.
Mr. Trump’s huge fiscal ensemble, who started his trip through Congress, could even more inflation. In its current form, its budget would add 2.8 billions of dollars to national debt over the next 10 years in addition to the Over 20 dollars billions New debt already projected. Higher deficits exert upward pressure on prices and interest rates.
I believe that the business world can also be disappointed with other fronts. For example, Andrew Ferguson, the new head of the Federal Trade Commission by Mr. Trump, recently suggested that the repression of the Biden era on mergers and acquisitions may not facilitate as much as commercial hopes.
Unlike companies, consumers can already grasp the importation of these problems. While commercial optimism has increased, consumers’ mood is darkening. Consumer confidence has dropped in February at its fastest rate in three and a half years, at its lowest level since June 2024, and inflation expectations in the next 12 months have increased to 6%, the highest level since May 2023.
Trump has also started to slip into the polls and is now underwater, with more Americans expressing disapproval than approval.
We are in an economic tug of war between optimism felt by investors and disturbing managers and potential for Mr. Trump’s incoherent policies. My business friends could still regret their support for the president.
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