With Canadians – and even Quebecers – rallying around the flag in the face of the threats of the Trump administration, Sovereignist Parti Québécois is struggling to find its place.
The Quebec Opposition Party has been conducting the polls for more than a year, and chief Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has promised to hold a third referendum by 2030 if his party formed the government during the elections of the year next.
But threats of prices and annexes from US President Donald Trump shaken the political landscape in Quebec. Support for independence is suddenly lower than it has been for years, which wonders if the PQ has to detach itself from sovereignty.
For the moment, the party insists that it is not the course. “We think it is something that inspires Quebecers to have people loyal to their convictions and their values,” said Pascal Paradis, member of the National Assembly PQ, in a recent interview.
He said it was interesting to see Canadian leaders defending the country’s “tooth and nails” sovereignty against Trump’s threats to make Canada on the 51st state. He compared the wave of nationalism to the Independent Movement of Quebec, wondering why he is “good for Canada but not for Quebec”.
“We will remain faithful to our message,” he said.
This could make the PQ vulnerable. A recent Léger survey revealed that Quebec’s independence support has increased to 29%. Executive vice-president Sébastien Dallaire said it was at the lowest support level that the survey company has ever measured.
“It is clearly linked to the current context of the increase in patriotism in Canada, an increased feeling that we have to stay together and resist in the United States,” he said.
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Support for the Parti Québécois has also taken a safe hit since the end of last year, said Dallaire, although the party is still leading in the polls. Until now, they are the Quebec Liberals – rather than the governing Coalition Avenir Québec – whose political fortunes have checked.
“The liberal brand in general, both at the federal and provincial level, has been reinforced by what is happening,” said Dallaire, adding that the Liberals are “more associated with the fight for Canadian unit”.
But commitment to sovereignty is at the heart of the identity of the PQ under the direction of St-Pierre Plamondon. Dimitri Sudas, political analyst and former communications director of Prime Minister Stephen Harper, said that the 48 -year -old lawyer was the first leader of the PQ for a long time who had not been “despised” on independence.
St-Pierre Plamondon took the reins of the PQ in 2020, when he was on the verge of collapse. The party had been reduced to 10 seats in the provincial legislative assembly in the 2018 elections and fell to three in 2022. Paradis won a fourth seat during a by -election in 2023.
“At the time, the strategy was simple,” said suddenly. “You must crystallize the base.”
Since then, St-Pierre Plamondon has been held on his commitment to hold a referendum in a first mandate, even if support for sovereignty has never increased well above 35% in recent years. But this commitment could now become an “Achilles heel” in the context of Trump’s threats, said suddenly.
“If I campaigned against them, I would campaign on a question: the instability that the referendum would bring.”
The Prime Minister of Quebec, François Legault, whose popularity has decreased after more than six years of office, was not long in seizing the opportunity, arguing now is not the time to prepare for a referendum.
But the PQ did not decide. Last week, the party published a video on social networks claiming that the concept of Canadian unit is a myth and that Quebec would be better placed to defend its own interests and protect its border if it separated from Canada. “An independent Quebec would be stronger,” said the video.
Paradis said that Canada had not presented a joint front in the United States, provinces such as Ontario and Alberta turning only on themselves. “The results show that there was no Canadian shield, that membership in Canada has not protected us from the pricing threat,” he said.
Antonine Yaccarini, political analyst and former member of the PQ and the Coalition Avenir Québec, said that the party of St-Pierre Plamondon must find a way to be taken more seriously on economic issues, rather than on issues identity.
But she also thinks that the PQ should hold stable on sovereignty. She said there was a good chance that the support for independence rebounded if Quebecers do not feel that Ottawa has their interests.
“I really think these problems are resurfacing very quickly,” she said. “And that Quebecers will seek someone to defend them.”
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