A month later Donald Trump The second mandate as an American president, he has become clear in the world that the American approach to foreign policy is undergoing significant change.
Since the end of the Second World War, the United States alliance with the West has been held stable, but as it evolves, those who study history have said that the world order that we have known for 80 years could be set for a seismic change.
“It is clear that management is a deep concern in the world due to management of management (by the United States) to a more transactional and unilateralist approach to international relations,” said John Blaxland, professor of international security at the Australian National University.
“It is such an unexplored territory; None of us have already experienced something like that before. »»
Many European leaders have been amazed earlier this month during a bubble speech at Munich Security Conference, US vice-president Jd vance The public told “there is a new sheriff in the city under the direction of Donald Trump” and warned governments that internal threats to democracy, such as elections and censorship, are greater threats to their country that external antagonists as China and Russia.
“The threat that I am most vis-à-vis Europe is not Russia, it is not China, it is not another external actor,” said Vance, S ‘expressing to the Munich Security Conference.
“What worries me is the threat of the interior – the retirement of Europe of some of its most fundamental values, values shared with the United States of America.”
A few days later, Trump seemed to reverse the country’s support to Ukraine, adopting hostile rhetoric recalling the disinformation frequently shared by Russian President Vladimir Putin
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During a press conference earlier, when he was asked why Ukraine was not included in the American talks, Trump accused Ukraine not only to avoid a negotiated war but also to Start it.
“Today, I heard:” Oh, well, we were not invited. “Well, you have been there for three years. You should have finished three years (there are). You should never have started, “he said.
The historian Andrew Gawthorpe says that the last few weeks have been an “extremely significant moment” with serious implications for the rest of the world.
“For the first time, there is a flaw in the Western Alliance,” said Leiden University Professor in an interview with Global News from his home to Leiden, in the Netherlands.
“It certainly seems that Trump’s dream is to join Vladimir Putin to redraw the security order in Europe, redesign the international order in Europe.”
Gawthorpe says that you will have to return to the late 1940s to find a comparable historical time.
“It was after the Second World War that the United States agreed that it was going to play a leading role in maintaining this world order and respect for security in Europe as well. It was then that the United States sent troops permanently to Europe for the first time. He said.
“Trump wants to cancel this order. He believes that it has been decades and decades that the rest of the world benefits from the United States. »»
What this will mean for the international community has become the sudden objective of academics and governments around the world.
“I think everyone is looking for a plan B right now,” said Blaxland.
“Everyone is trying to think:” OK, now what? “”
Donald Heflin, principal researcher at TUFTS University and former American diplomat, believes that institutions like the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund and the NATO Alliance are strong enough to survive the next four years.
“(The United States) is a very important player. Could we essential or these alliances take up and do the work? I think the latter. I think they will survive, ”said Heflin.
“Although there may be bad things that happen over the next three or four years and it would be great if these institutions were stronger during this period to treat them.”
Heflin thinks that the protection of these institutions and alliances is also in the best interest in the United States.
“It was a much more peaceful and more stable world and it is due to the hard work of all the member countries of these institutions.”
Blaxland and Gawthorpe say that western Western alliance would be considered an opportunity for China to extend its sphere of influence in the world.
“This is a huge opening for China,” said Blaxland. “This is an opportunity for China to say:” You see, America, what is it? ” What do they remember on us? Principles? Soft Power? Moral authority? International rules? These were all thrown into the air. »»
“We are going to live in a world with three great superpowers in the United States, Russia and China,” said Gawthorpe.
“We will see more and more that the small countries have not listened to their voice and that they are leaning on the will of these superpowers.”
Countries like Canada, Gawthorpe suspects, will have few playing cards.
“The international rules and laws and institutions that gave them a voice and gave them an influence in global affairs apparently spread, replaced by this strong men’s rule,” said Gawthorpe.
“I think we are heading for a much larger world of instability and unpredictability. (Saying) We are heading towards war is too pessimistic, but we can say that the situation on a global scale becomes much more controversial. »»
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