Welcome to a special edition before the holidays From the political officean evening newsletter that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News Politics team from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.
Today we look back at the main scenarios that defined this year. We’re off the rest of the week, but we’ll be back in your inbox next Monday with a look at the dynamics that will shape 2025.
Sign up to receive this newsletter in your inbox every weekday here.
5 scenarios that defined 2024
By Mark Murray
As the year draws to a close, with President-elect Donald Trump returning to the White House, President Joe Biden leaving office and a new Congress starting next month, here’s a look at the major political storylines that have shaped 2024 – in descending order.
5. Trump’s easy path to the Republican Party nomination. It’s important to remember that at the start of the 2024 cycle, there was no guarantee that Trump would be the Republican Party’s presidential nominee.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was close to Trump in early polls; Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., had early momentum and money; and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley had the makings of a formidable challenger.
But in the end, Trump won every GOP nominating contest — except for Vermont and Washington, D.C.
Even after his 2020 defeat, the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol, and the party’s disappointing performance in the 2022 midterm elections, Trump’s stranglehold on the Republican Party was evident in pre-primary polls showing that half Republican voters or more wanted it. continue to lead the party.
4. Trump’s failed legal challenges. The year 2024 was marked by split-screen activity on the campaign trail and courtroom drama.
Trump faced four separate indictments and was finally condemned on 34 counts in the hush money case. They were all meant to represent one of the defining moments of the election.
But politically, they have largely only served to help Trump rally more of the Republican base around him. And many cases collapsed after Trump was able to delay proceedings and sentencing, and after his victory in November.
3. The presidential debate that changed everything. As the June debate approaches – the first general election showdown in memory – many voters I already had concerns on President Joe Biden’s age and suitability to serve another term.
And the debate only confirmed these concerns, as he frequently stumbled over his remarks and appeared weak on stage.
This performance immediately set off alarm bells for Democrats. But Biden vowed he would stay in the race, even as calls within his own party for him to step down grew louder. He dropped out of school a month later.
2. Harris became more popular than Biden (but not significantly more popular than Trump). Immediately after Biden left office, the Democratic Party coalesced around Vice President Kamala Harris, who enjoyed a political honeymoon.
In the Final NBC News Poll Before the election, Harris had a favorable rating of 43% positive, 50% negative (-7 net rating) – significantly higher than Biden’s score of 35% positive, 52% negative (-17).
But Harris’ numbers weren’t far from Trump’s: 42% positive, 51% negative (-9).
1. Concerns about inflation and the economy have doomed Democrats. Ultimately it was the economy, stupid.
Despite strong job creation and a slowdown in inflation lowest level since 2021Most American voters were unhappy with the economy or how Biden was handling it.
Two thirds said their family income was below the cost of living, and only 25% of voters said Biden’s policies were helping their families (compared to 44% who said that about Trump when he was president), according to an NBC News poll.
And according to the NBC News Exit Poll32% of voters said the economy was their most important issue — and Trump beat Harris among those voters 81% to 18%.
Why 2024 Was the Ultimate “What If” Election
By Chuck Todd
There are so many holiday traditions in Washington: congressional negotiations that last too long, crowded parties, inhumane traffic around the lighting of the national Christmas tree.
But one holiday tradition we look forward to is our annual “What If” series of alternate history episodes about the Chuck ToddCast. Every year, we ask our listeners to share their favorite ideas about possible twists in history that could have changed everything in politics.
This year, our listeners asked questions about all the other ways the 2024 election could have gone. They also asked questions about Donald Trump (What if Trump bought the Buffalo Bills in 2014?), American history (What if George Washington ran for a third term?) and more. We had questions about Jeb Bush and Ross Perot, the Gulf War and the Cold War… someone even shared an intelligent question about the disastrous 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses.
Asking these questions is not just about scratching an itch, but about examining how the harsh certainties of our world could have been fundamentally different and asking what that would have said about our country, our history, and ourselves.
We’re kicking off this year’s series with one of my favorite alternative history geeks, Politico’s Jonathan Martinto talk about what other twists and turns we might see in the 2024 election. You’d think that an election year like 2024, with so many unexpected developments, would satisfy the curiosity of anyone wondering “What if?” » – but in a year that could have been its own alternate history, the possibilities are endless.
That’s all that’s coming from the politburo for now. If you have any comments (like or dislike), please email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com
And if you’re a fan, share it with everyone. They can register here.