Elon Musk, director general of Tesla Inc., carries a hat of cheese chief while arriving for a town hall in America Pac before the elections of the Supreme Court of Wisconsin at the Ki Convention Center in Green Bay, Wisc., March 30.
Jamie Kelter Davis / Bloomberg via Getty Images
hide
tilting legend
Jamie Kelter Davis / Bloomberg via Getty Images
Democrats won a Legal election in Wisconsin This saw a record amount spent, national attention and was something of a referendum on Elon Musk, which played a big role, as well as the agenda of President Trump by extension.
They also won a public school superintendent race there, but the Republicans obtained a victory over a measure of identification of voters. And, in Florida, the Republicans won two two -digit special elections.
So, what should be made of all these 19 months from the mid-term elections of 2026?
Here are five points to remember:
1. The results show political -contrary winds for Trump and the Republicans.
Susan Crawford, a liberal judge, helped keep the Supreme State Court supported in the leadership of Democrats in a race which saw nearly $ 70 million in advertising, according to the advertising advertising follow -up company, the ever never sentenced to a legal race. Who understood Some $ 20 million musc (More on him below).
It was the renowned election race on Tuesday in a state that was decided by 1 point in the presidential election of 2024, and Crawford won it easily, by 10 points with more than 95% of the vote.
The Republicans, on the other hand, won the two special elections in Florida by around 14 points each. But these are very red districts. The republican members of the Congress, who had represented these seats before being torn off for the Trump administration, won them by more than 30 points in November, so the Democrats also ate margins significantly – although indications are even better. (These are the seats that were detained by Mike Waltz, now the national security advisor, and Matt Gaetz, that Trump wanted to be a prosecutor general before his appointment was withdrawn from the concerns that he lacked in republican support sufficient to confirm.))
There were 60 Republican members of the Chamber who won in 2024 by 15 points or less – and they could be concerned after these results, according to Ballot. The curator Wall Street Journal The editorial committee, well read in Trump World, calls on the results “”Maga’s backlash. “”
It is important to be careful not to have outlined the results of the out -of -year elections – and the Democrats won a Judicial Headquarters of the Wisconsin in 2023, but lost the state during the presidential election. But there are signs of early alert here for the GOP and a reminder that energy is often with the pavilion, which is why they have historically done so well in the first median of the presidents. And these elections can be the breadcrumbs on the path of mid-term success, especially if a president continues with a daring and divider program.
2. It was a very bad night for Elon Musk – and his days can be counted like Trump’s right hand.
Musk entered the Wisconsin’s legal race. Groups with the The richest man in the world Support spent some $ 20 million. He also made an appearance in the state (wearing a cheese hat), offered a million dollars of voters and even said “All the fate of humanity“Could rest on the race.
Talk about raising the stakes.
Trump is likely to do what he does – put a positive turn on the results or say that everything is fine and point to elections in Florida (as he did in a All thecaps Social media message Tuesday evening without mentioning the judicial result of Wisconsin). But that probably does not make him happy, especially given the quantity of musk and his Doge group. Musk’s favorability ratings were a net negative nationally – and were also in Wisconsin. Musk represented something of a thermal shield for Trump on an unpopular way of making a scanning cuts to the government, but, after the results of Tuesday, how long can it stay in the eyes of the public and not start to affect Trump’s political position?
Until now, Trump’s global approval rating has been slightly higher than during his first mandate due to Strong Gop backing and because of men. But an AP-Noc survey this week has shown that Trump The approval rating falling to 42%and his Economic approval only at 40%Compared to better grades that he received on immigration. This is particularly revealing on this day of reciprocal prices, because his trade war is unpopular.
If Musk starts to lose a luster in Trump’s eyes, it could be a result of which the Republicans of the Congress are quietly satisfied. After all, they won their two seats at home in Florida, helping to consolidate their majority, and the result of Wisconsin could help move Musk and its blunt and unpopular agenda of the projectors.
By the way, Musk can be new in politics, but he violated a key rule of it – never put yourself on your head that you do not wear normally, even Trump, who likes a good hat, know this one.
3. Signs of the way Democrats fight Trump – and what the base wants.
An easy – and somewhat lazy – framing of the internal battle within the Democratic Party is “progressive against moderate”. In large part, many parties in the party agree on the questions, with obvious exceptions on the distance to which to go on certain things or when to push for them or not.
Currently, these are more fights compared to the acquiescence, to stand up against the complacency.
This was clear with the anger of the basis of the democratic base to “do something” when the head of the Senate Chuck Schumer allowed a GOP spending bill last month to keep the government open. This is also why so many people on the left loved Senator Cory Booker holding the speech of the Senate with an anti-Trump discourse. It is now the longest speech in the room, more than 24 consecutive hours, break the record held by the late Strom Thurmond, a Southern Caroline Racist SenatorA boker, which is black, said that it was “very aware”.
The president of the Wisconsin Democratic Party summed up the split between the Democrats.
“I do not think that the most significant distinction within Democrats is now left against the center,” said State Party Ben Wikler in MSNBC Morning Joe. “I think it’s going on the front foot and fights against and ride and play dead.”
He noted that Crawford was against a ban on abortion at the Court, that Jill underlying, the chief of public schools, ran against the dismantling of the Ministry of Education, and that they were both against the cast of musk “side of any check and balance”.
“These are largely detained by progressives, by centrists, by everything else,” said Wikler. “The critical thing is to go there and fight. It is to assert the voters; it is to be omnipresent, to communicate, to travel everywhere, and I think that the Democrats who do this in the coalition of the great tents that make up the Democratic Party, the anti-maga coalition, you will see a lot of success.”
4. Political realignment helps democrats in out -of -year elections.
The two parties have paid millions of external dollars into these races, and it is because the out of year and special elections are difficult to mobilize voters.
The $ 70 million spent for advertisements alone in Wisconsin were the Most for a legal race And many came from outside the state.
In Florida, the elections of the 6th Congression District for the siege of Waltz – the one that Trump and the GOP were the most concerned – would have been in the Top 20 for most expenses by a single candidate For any house race on entire 2024 cycle, and it was more than 20 months. It was two. The Democrat raised around $ 10 million during this period and spent more than $ 8 million, while the Republican spent less than $ 1 million, based on candidates on March 12.
The participation rate was not bad. It is always lower in these kinds of breeds than in the presidential elections – and this is, of course, the case in both states. In WisconsinAbout 2.4 million voting bulletins were deposited (with 95%), about 30% less than in November. In Florida, less than 200,000 voters went to the ballot boxes in each district of the congress. In 2024, it was More than double. So the money is not everything.
But it is a reminder that the highlights of the basics is the key to the out of year and mid -term elections – and that the realignment of educated voters in college, who have higher participation rates, towards Democrats, helps them in this type of election.
5. The identification of voters is a problem that continues to look strongly to the right.
It should be noted that the same voters who voted for a liberal judge in Wisconsin extremely approved A measure requiring an identity document of voters.
It is something that is already the law of the state; This devoted it to the Constitution of the State.
A Bench survey Last year found 81% in favor of the requirement of people that they show an identity document with photo issued by the government to vote. This included 69% of Democrats. Few things get this bipartisan level of support.
So, yes, democrats can take Tuesday as one of the first news of good news that they have had since the presidential election of 2024. But they must also be aware that there are many problems which are still in the center -right, including the identification of voters and many measures intended to brake immigration – especially when the party sees save bass In favorability.